This market resolves YES if Ytterbium-176 production from ASP Isotopes in the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds 1.0 kg by 2026-12-31.
Measurement methodology:
Calculate total Ytterbium-176 production that was completed during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date
For 2026-12-31 settlement: measure production from 2025-07-04 to 2026-10-02
"Production" means enriched Ytterbium-176 that reached target purity (≥99.75%)
Sum all production from ASP Isotopes' Quantum Enrichment facilities
YES if:
Verified production in the measurement window totals ≥1.0 kg of Yb-176
Sources confirm production volumes through SEC filings, press releases, or earnings calls
NO if:
Total production remains below 1.0 kg
Only announced capacity (not actual production) would exceed threshold
Resolution sources (priority order):
ASP Isotopes SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K)
ASP Isotopes press releases and investor relations announcements
Earnings call transcripts with production figures
Direct company communications confirming production volumes
1,000People are also trading
China has implemented an embargo on samarium exports, exacerbating supply risks for the US defense sector. This embargo is expected to severely impact the availability of samarium cobalt magnets essential for military applications, such as F-35 fighter jets. Given the strategic importance and China's dominant market position, this event could trigger significant supply disruptions and a price escalation.
China's recent embargo on samarium exports creates substantial disruption risks for U.S. defense supply chains. Given samarium's critical use in F-35 fighter jets and other defense systems, this policy will likely elevate strategic material costs and induce supply chain instability. Historical parallels, such as the 2010 rare earth quota, which led to significant global price increases, suggest strong price and availability shocks are imminent.
China's recent samarium export embargo poses a significant risk to the global supply chain, especially in defense applications dependent on samarium cobalt magnets. Given China's 85%+ refining capacity control, this embargo could dramatically affect market stability and pricing, similar to past rare earth incidents.
Market pricing looks too optimistic relative to ASP’s own 1 kg/year-per-line target and the practical challenges of scaling a new enrichment tech in a tiny, specialized medical-isotope market. I’d lean under unless there is clear evidence of multiple additional Yb‑176 lines or contracts that justify >10 kg/year output by 2030.
The market appears to be pricing in a very aggressive scale‑up of Yb‑176 capacity that is not yet reflected in ASP’s stated 1 kg/year design rate and current single‑plant footprint. Upside exists if ASP unexpectedly adds a large additional Yb facility or repurposes significant capacity, but that would represent a material deviation from current guidance.