Will 3I/ATLAS maintain a steady-state outgassing rate through April 15, 2026?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ160Apr 15
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market tests the "Managed Coolant Loop" hypothesis vs. the natural "Rubble Pile" model.
As 3I/ATLAS transits the intense radiation belts of the Jovian magnetosphere, standard cometary models predict chaotic, unpredictable spikes in outgassing ("cracking") as structural integrity is tested by thermal and gravitational stress.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
Resolves YES if Hydroxyl (OH) production rates remain at a stable, managed equilibrium (variance < 15%) through the April 15 transit window. Resolves NO if the object exhibits chaotic outgassing spikes (>50% variance) or structural fragmentation characteristic of natural volatile-rich bodies.
REFERENCE:
Defined as "Marker 2: Thermal Steady-State" in the C4 Institute Operational Primer and Technical Bulletin C4-2026-03-A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will 3I/ATLAS's outgassing production rate drop by >90% within a 48-hour window in late May 2026?
50% chance
Will 3I/ATLAS exhaust velocity (v_ex) exceed 400 km/s during its May 2026 periapsis?
56% chance
Will 3I/ATLAS show a Z-axis residual breakout >10km by June 15, 2026?
15% chance
Will 3I/ATLAS produce an RF signature during its Jupiter Hill Sphere entry (March 14–18, 2026)?
47% chance
Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 1.0 kg by Dec 2026?
46% chance
Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 3.0 kg by Dec 2028?
73% chance
Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 2.0 kg by Dec 2027?
42% chance
Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 4.0 kg by Dec 2029?
67% chance
Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 5.0 kg by Dec 2030?
33% chance
Composition of 3I/ATLAS