MANIFOLD
Will ASP Isotopes Yb-176 output (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 2.0 kg by Dec 2027?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ15
2027
57%
chance

This market resolves YES if Ytterbium-176 production from ASP Isotopes in the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds 2.0 kg by 2027-12-31.

Measurement methodology:

  • Calculate total Ytterbium-176 production that was completed during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date

  • For 2027-12-31 settlement: measure production from 2026-07-04 to 2027-10-02

  • "Production" means enriched Ytterbium-176 that reached target purity (≥99.75%)

  • Sum all production from ASP Isotopes' Quantum Enrichment facilities

YES if:

  • Verified production in the measurement window totals ≥2.0 kg of Yb-176

  • Sources confirm production volumes through SEC filings, press releases, or earnings calls

NO if:

  • Total production remains below 2.0 kg

  • Only announced capacity (not actual production) would exceed threshold

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. ASP Isotopes SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K)

  2. ASP Isotopes press releases and investor relations announcements

  3. Earnings call transcripts with production figures

  4. Direct company communications confirming production volumes

Market context
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