Will 3I/ATLAS's outgassing production rate drop by >90% within a 48-hour window in late May 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ110May 31
50%
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This market tests the "Engine Cutoff" hypothesis. Natural comets are expected to fade gradually according to an inverse-square law (1/r^2) as they move away from the Sun.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
Resolves YES if the Hydroxyl (OH) or water-vapor production rate exhibits a discontinuous, step-function drop from >30 kg/s to <3 kg/s within any 48-hour window between May 15 and May 30, 2026. Resolves NO if the object follows a standard, gradual decay curve without a sudden cutoff.
REFERENCE:
Defined as "Marker 4" in the C4 Institute Operational Primer and the predictive matrix of JBIS-1716 (Baird 2026).This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Composition of 3I/ATLAS