Johnson Mathey typically issues a revised 2025 estimate in their November PGM report. This market will close on the first of November and resolve when the report is issued. If the revised 2025 estimate for primary production of rhodium in Russia (only) exceeds 60 koz this market will resolve YES. If no report is issued by the end of 2025 the market will resolve N/A.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the first Johnson Matthey PGM publication released on or after November 1, 2025 that includes a 2025 forecast shows “Rhodium supply and demand – Troy ounces” with Russia’s “Primary supply ‘000 oz” strictly greater than 60. Use the “Troy ounces” table as the sole authority; if both ounces and tonnes are published, ounces take precedence. Source: Johnson Matthey PGM Market Reports page (future updates will post here). (matthey.com)
If no such update is published by January 31, 2026, market will resolve to N/A.
“Exceeds” is >60; exactly 60 resolves NO. Source: May 2025 PGM Market Report, see Rhodium tables (pp. 27–28). (matthey.com)
Background
Johnson Matthey (JM) states the PGM Market Report is published annually in May. In recent years there has not always been a November update. (matthey.com)
As of the May 2025 report, JM’s 2025 estimate for Russia’s primary rhodium supply is 60 ‘000 oz (and 1.9 tonnes is shown in the companion table). This equals, not exceeds, 60. (matthey.com)
Considerations
JM’s definition: primary supply is sales of primary PGM allocated to the region where mining took place (not the refining/sales location). (matthey.com)
Rounding can cause minor discrepancies between the ‘000 oz and tonnes tables; this market resolves on the ‘000 oz figure only. (matthey.com)
Related markets:
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