Johnson Mathey typically issues a revised 2025 estimate in their November PGM report. This market will close on the first of November and resolve when the report is issued. If the revised 2025 estimate for primary production of rhodium in Russia (only) exceeds 60 koz this market will resolve YES. If no report is issued by the end of 2025 the market will resolve N/A.

Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if the first Johnson Matthey PGM publication released on or after November 1, 2025 that includes a 2025 forecast shows “Rhodium supply and demand – Troy ounces” with Russia’s “Primary supply ‘000 oz” strictly greater than 60. Use the “Troy ounces” table as the sole authority; if both ounces and tonnes are published, ounces take precedence. Source: Johnson Matthey PGM Market Reports page (future updates will post here). (matthey.com)

• If no such update is published by January 31, 2026, market will resolve to N/A.

• “Exceeds” is >60; exactly 60 resolves NO. Source: May 2025 PGM Market Report, see Rhodium tables (pp. 27–28). (matthey.com)

Background

• Johnson Matthey (JM) states the PGM Market Report is published annually in May. In recent years there has not always been a November update. (matthey.com)

• As of the May 2025 report, JM’s 2025 estimate for Russia’s primary rhodium supply is 60 ‘000 oz (and 1.9 tonnes is shown in the companion table). This equals, not exceeds, 60. (matthey.com)

Considerations

• JM’s definition: primary supply is sales of primary PGM allocated to the region where mining took place (not the refining/sales location). (matthey.com)

• Rounding can cause minor discrepancies between the ‘000 oz and tonnes tables; this market resolves on the ‘000 oz figure only. (matthey.com)

Related markets:

• https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/south-african-2025-rhodium-supply-e

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• Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to resolve this market as N/A (cancel).

• Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to resolve this market as N/A (cancel).

• Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to resolve this market as N/A (cancel), consistent with the description's stated condition that if no qualifying Johnson Matthey report is published by January 31, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

• Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market YES, citing an SFA (Oxford) estimate of 80 koz for Russian primary rhodium supply in 2025 — rather than a Johnson Matthey report. This is a significant change from the previous proposed resolution of N/A, and departs from the stated resolution criteria which specified Johnson Matthey as the sole authority. The creator is about to resolve the market; see the linked comment for details.

• Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market YES, citing an SFA (Oxford) estimate of 80 koz for Russian primary rhodium supply in 2025. This departs from the stated resolution criteria, which specified Johnson Matthey as the sole authority. The creator is about to resolve the market.

• Update 2026-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to resolve this market N/A (cancel), stating that no explicit, country-specific 2025 estimate for Russian rhodium supply is available from Johnson Matthey or any other authoritative source, consistent with the description's condition that if no qualifying report is published by January 31, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Note: this reverses a prior proposed resolution of YES based on an SFA (Oxford) estimate.

• Update 2026-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market YES, citing a Heraeus Precious Metals estimate of 75 koz for Russia's 2025 refined rhodium production, and an SFA (Oxford) estimate of 80 koz. This departs from the stated resolution criteria, which specified Johnson Matthey as the sole authority, and reverses a prior proposed resolution of N/A. The creator is about to resolve the market.

• Update 2026-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is now proposing to resolve this market YES, citing an SFA (Oxford) estimate of 80 koz for Russian primary rhodium supply in 2025. This departs from the stated resolution criteria, which specified Johnson Matthey as the sole authority. The creator is about to resolve the market.

• Update 2026-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has resolved this market YES, departing from the stated resolution criteria (which specified Johnson Matthey as the sole authority). The resolution appears to be based on third-party estimates (SFA Oxford: 80 koz; Heraeus: 75 koz) rather than a Johnson Matthey report.