MANIFOLD
Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 230 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ623
May 31
94%
chance

This market tracks Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing).

Measurement date: May 31, 2026

Resolution:

  • YES if: Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) ≥ 230 million tonnes on 2026-05-31

  • NO if: Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) < 230 million tonnes on 2026-05-31

Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reports, Roskill supply chain studies

Indonesia reduced its 2026 RKAB quota to 250-260 million tonnes, potentially removing up to 7-8% of expected global nickel ore supply this year.

Rationale: Indonesia's cut on the mining work-plan quota reduces global nickel supply, affecting the raw ore availability for smelters, and tightening the market.

Source: Article

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