Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026. This requires both Commerce final affirmative determination AND USITC final affirmative injury determination.

Timeline & Probabilities:

📅 Feb 10, 2026: Prelim AD announced
• Russia-wide margin: 132.83%

📅 By Mar 1, 2026: Federal Register publication (85% probability)
• Legal trigger for statutory deadlines and cash deposits

📅 By Jun 30, 2026: Commerce final affirmative AD determination (75%)
• Expected ~Apr 28, 2026 unless extended • Final rate uncertain (separate market for rate prediction) • Prelim reference point: 132.83%

📅 By Sep 30, 2026: USITC final affirmative injury (70%)
• Critical gate: No duties without injury finding • Material injury or threat determination required

📅 By Oct 31, 2026: AD duty order published (65%)
• Requires both Commerce + USITC affirmative • Once issued: cash deposits required on all imports • Rate >100% effectively shuts down Russian imports

Why this matters:

• Russia = 40% of global palladium production

• 2024 US imports from Russia: 27.6 metric tons

• Duties would force shift to South African/Canadian/recycled sources

• Supply chain disruption + price impact

Related markets:

• Federal Register publication trigger

• Commerce final determination

• USITC injury determination

• Final cash-deposit rate (separate numeric market)

Case details:

• A-821-840 (Antidumping)

• C-821-841 (Countervailing Duty, concurrent)

• HTS 7110.21.0000 (unwrought palladium)

Market created by: Curtis Steele (Palladium Specialist)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code