Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.4 million ounces in 2026?

Ṁ100Ṁ20

Mar 4

67%

chance

ALL

Resolution Criteria

The market will resolve based on Nornickel's official 2026 palladium production report, as published in their annual financial statements or press releases. Verification will be done using data from reputable financial news outlets such as Bloomberg or Reuters.

Background

Nornickel, the world's largest palladium producer, has projected a decline in palladium production due to lower ore grades and changes in metal composition of processed raw materials. In 2023, the company anticipated a decline of up to 11% to 2.4 million ounces. This decline is compounded by challenges in accessing Western mining equipment due to geopolitical tensions, leading to reliance on less advanced machinery from China and Belarus.

Key Considerations

The threshold is set at 2.4 million ounces, which aligns with Nornickel's own projections for a potential decline. Factors influencing this include the quality of ore, geopolitical issues affecting equipment sourcing, and the company's ability to adapt to new machinery. The probability of production falling below this threshold is influenced by these operational challenges and market conditions.