Johnson Mathey typically issues a revised 2025 estimate in their November PGM report. This market will close on the first of November and resolve when the report is issued. If the revised 2025 estimate for primary production of rhodium in south africa (only) exceeds 561 koz this market will resolve YES. If there is no report issued in 2025, the market will resolve N/A.
Resolution criteria
Resolve YES if Johnson Matthey’s first PGM Market publication released on or after November 1, 2025 reports South Africa’s 2025 primary rhodium supply strictly greater than 561,000 oz in the “Rhodium supply and demand – Troy ounces” table. If the reported value is 561,000 oz or lower, resolve NO. Cite the report page showing the “South Africa” row. (matthey.com)
If no such JM update is published by December 31, 2025, resolve N/A.
Source location: the PGM Market Reports index (new reports appear here) and the May 2025 report PDF (rhodium tables on pp. 27–28). (matthey.com)
Background
As of the May 2025 report, JM estimates South Africa’s 2025 primary rhodium supply at 561 koz (17.4 tonnes), with 2024 at 586 koz. (matthey.com)
JM defines “primary supply” as sales of primary PGM by producers, allocated to the region where mining took place. This matches “South Africa (only)” in the table. (matthey.com)
Considerations
Johnson Matthey now states the PGM Market Report is published annually in May; a separate November “interim” update is not guaranteed. Hence the possibility of N/A. (matthey.com)
If JM publishes only the tonnes table, use the same row (“South Africa”) there; thresholds are consistent with 561 koz ≈ 17.4 t. (matthey.com)
Monitoring
Programmatic participation is encouraged.
1,000