Will the December 2025 GEPUCURRENT measure of Global Exonomic Policy Uncertainty number (usually released a few days into January 2026) exceed 600?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index for December 2025 exceeds 600. The GEPU Index is typically released in early January 2026. The official value can be verified through the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database: FRED GEPU Index.

Background

The GEPU Index is a GDP-weighted average of national Economic Policy Uncertainty indices for 20 countries, including the United States, China, and Germany. It measures the frequency of articles in major newspapers that discuss economic policy uncertainty. Historical data shows that the index has experienced significant spikes during major global events, such as the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. As of April 2025, the GEPU Index stood at 603.56, indicating elevated levels of uncertainty. Source

Considerations

Traders should monitor global events that could influence economic policy uncertainty, such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and major elections. Additionally, the methodology of the GEPU Index relies on media coverage, which may introduce biases based on the volume and nature of reporting. Understanding these factors can aid in making informed predictions about the index's movements.