The EIA will issue an Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) in the Spring of 2026. This market concerns the Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) forecast U.S. market share for new passenger vehicles in 2026.
We expect this projection for 2026 PHEV share will be in the "Transportation" section.
If there is no explicit 2026 PHEV market share projection, we may fall back to an clearly implied forecast 2026 market share at discretion (for example if absolute sales are projected).
In the unlikely event there is no clearly implied forecast we may fall back to asking grok "based on your reading of this report, what is your best estimate of the authors' estimate of U.S. market share for PHEV in new passenger vehicles in 2026?".
The market will resolve to N/A if, contrary to expectation, no forecast for 2026 market share of PHEV is provided.
The market will resolve to N/A if no report is issued by the end of April 2026.
Resolution criteria
Resolve to the percentage share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in new U.S. light‑duty vehicle (LDV) sales for calendar year 2026 reported in the U.S. EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026), Reference case.
Source order of precedence:
AEO2026 Interactive Table Viewer (Transportation → LDV sales by technology/share), or the equivalent Reference case tables. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ and https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/tables_ref.php (use the 2026 edition when posted). (eia.gov)
If the share is not shown directly but 2026 sales by technology are, compute PHEV share = PHEV sales ÷ total new LDV sales (same table), rounded to one decimal place.
Definitions: “PHEV” is EIA’s plug‑in hybrid category; “new passenger vehicles” maps to EIA’s new LDV sales (cars + light trucks).
Use the Reference case only. If multiple versions of AEO2026 are posted, use the latest final posting on eia.gov.
N/A conditions: If AEO2026 is not released by April 30, 2026, or if no explicit or implied 2026 PHEV share (or components to compute it) is provided for the Reference case.
Background
AEO provides long‑term U.S. energy projections; AEO2025 (released April 15, 2025) includes Reference and side cases and documents methods and policy cutoffs (laws/regulations as of Dec 2024). AEO2026 is expected to follow the same structure and data access (interactive tables, XLSX, API). (eia.gov)
The AEO tables page lists Reference‑case tables and Transportation sector detail (including LDV metrics) and will host the 2026 tables once published. (eia.gov)
Market context: In 2023, PHEVs were about 20% of U.S. plug‑in sales (rest BEVs), per DOE/Argonne tracking; traders can use such baselines when forming priors. (energy.gov, anl.gov)
Considerations
EIA sometimes reports LDV sales by technology as counts and/or shares; either is acceptable per the rules above. If EIA reports “plug‑in” totals and BEV separately, infer PHEV = plug‑in − BEV from the same table before computing share. Use calendar year 2026. (eia.gov)
EIA’s wording is “light‑duty vehicles” (cars + light trucks). This market maps “passenger vehicles” to LDVs to avoid ambiguity. (eia.gov)
Policy assumptions in AEO Reference cases are fixed to a cutoff; short‑term news or policy changes after EIA’s cutoff may not be reflected in the projection, which can affect expectations vs. the published share. (eia.gov)
Family of related markets
ICE - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-ice-market-sh
HEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-hev-market-sh
BEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-ev-market-sha
PHEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-phev-market-s
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