The EIA will issue an Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) in the Spring of 2026. This market concerns the Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) forecast U.S. market share for new passenger vehicles in 2026. This does NOT include plug-in hybrids.

We expect this projection for 2026 HEV share will be in the "Transportation" section.

If there is no explicit 2026 HEV market share projection, we may fall back to an clearly implied forecast 2026 market share at discretion (for example if absolute sales are projected).

In the unlikely event there is no clearly implied forecast we may fall back to asking grok "based on your reading of this report, what is your best estimate of the authors' estimate of U.S. market share for HEV in new passenger vehicles in 2026?".

The market will resolve to N/A if, contrary to expectation, no forecast for 2026 market share of PHEV is provided.

The market will resolve to N/A if no report is issued by the end of April 2026.

Resolution criteria

• Resolve to the option whose range contains the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026 Reference case projection for the 2026 market share of hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs, non‑plug‑in) in new U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales. Source at resolution: AEO 2026 Interactive Table Viewer → Transportation → “Light‑duty vehicle sales shares by technology” (or successor). If a “shares” table is absent, use “Light‑duty vehicle sales by technology” and compute share = HEV sales / total LDV sales; round to the nearest 0.1 percentage point. Exclude PHEVs and BEVs; include only non‑plug‑in HEVs. Use the final EIA posting as of market resolution. (eia.gov)

• If EIA splits HEVs into subtypes (e.g., mild vs full) in 2026, sum all non‑plug‑in HEV subcategories before computing the share. If both “sales” and “shares” are published and conflict, use the “shares” table.

• Interpret “new passenger vehicles” as EIA “new LDVs” (cars + light trucks), the category EIA publishes. (eia.gov)

• N/A if EIA does not publish AEO 2026 by April 30, 2026 (ET), or if neither an explicit share nor a clearly implied (computable) HEV share for 2026 is available.

Background

• AEO provides long‑term projections under a policy‑neutral Reference case; AEO 2025 (released April 15, 2025) links illustrate the table structure and viewer that AEO 2026 will use. (eia.gov)

• DOE defines HEVs as vehicles powered by an ICE plus one or more electric motors that cannot be plugged in; this market excludes PHEVs. (afdc.energy.gov)

• Recent context: EIA reported electrified (HEV+PHEV+BEV) sales share ~22% in Q1 2025 with hybrids gaining share; in Q3 2024 HEVs reached a record ~10.8% of new LDV sales. These are descriptive, not binding for AEO 2026. (eia.gov, dieselnet.com)

Considerations

• Table names occasionally change between AEO editions; use the Transportation section of the Interactive Table Viewer and the Reference case only. (eia.gov)

• EIA’s Reference case reflects laws/regulations in effect by the model cutoff for that edition (e.g., Dec 2024 in AEO 2025); late policy changes may not be reflected in the projection. (eia.gov)

  Resolution criteria

  • Resolve to the single option whose range contains the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026 Reference case projection for the 2026 market share of hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs, non‑plug‑in) in new U.S. light‑duty vehicle (LDV) sales. Source at resolution: AEO 2026 Interactive Table Viewer → Transportation → “Light‑duty vehicle sales shares by technology” (or successor). If a “shares” table is absent, use “Light‑duty vehicle sales by technology” and compute share = HEV sales ÷ total LDV sales; round to the nearest 0.1 percentage point. Exclude PHEVs and BEVs; include only non‑plug‑in HEVs. Use the final EIA posting as of market resolution. (eia.gov)

  • If EIA splits HEVs into subtypes (e.g., mild vs full), sum all non‑plug‑in HEV subcategories before computing the share. If both “sales” and “shares” tables are published and conflict, use the “shares” table. (eia.gov)

  • Interpret “new passenger vehicles” as EIA “new LDVs” (cars + light trucks). (law.cornell.edu)

  • N/A if EIA does not publish AEO 2026 by April 30, 2026 (ET), or if neither an explicit share nor a clearly implied (computable) 2026 HEV share is available. (eia.gov)

  Background

  • AEO provides long‑term projections under a policy‑neutral Reference case and publishes data via an Interactive Table Viewer; AEO 2025 (released April 15, 2025) illustrates the structure AEO 2026 will use. (eia.gov)

  • DOE defines HEVs as vehicles powered by an internal combustion engine plus one or more electric motors that cannot be plugged in; this market excludes plug‑in hybrids. (afdc.energy.gov)

  • Recent context: EIA reported electrified (HEV+PHEV+BEV) shares hit records in late 2024, with HEVs reaching ~10.8% of new LDV sales in Q3 2024. Descriptive only, not binding for AEO 2026. (dieselnet.com, automotivedive.com)

  Considerations

  • Table names sometimes change between AEO editions; use the Transportation section of the Interactive Table Viewer and the Reference case only. (eia.gov)

  • EIA’s Reference case reflects laws/regulations in effect by the model cutoff for that edition (e.g., December 2024 in AEO 2025); AEO 2026 will have its own cutoff that may exclude late policy changes. (eia.gov)

  Family of related markets

  • ICE - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-ice-market-sh

  • HEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-hev-market-sh

  • BEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-ev-market-sha

  • PHEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-phev-market-s