Donut Lab has posted this video: https://youtu.be/Y-aPS2AwMbc?si=Wgwx-LUcWMhp3L9k
In it they make several claims about a new battery technology they've invented. One year from now, will I deem any of the claims made to have been false or disingenuous? I will resolve the market Yes if I do and no if I don't. I won't bet on this market. I will act in good faith. The resolution will be as accurate a reflection of my belief at the closing time as I can have it be.
Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the resolution will depend on whether someone buying their system based on what was advertised in the YouTube video would feel scammed upon using it, on average. This applies even if technical claims are individually true but there are undisclosed downsides (like fast self-discharge in the hypothetical example discussed).
Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that even if all technical specifications are true (e.g., 400 Wh/kg, 11 C charging), the market could still resolve YES if there are significant undisclosed caveats that would make the overall claims misleading. Example given: if materials are technically "globally abundant" but so difficult to extract/refine that manufacturing at scale becomes impractical, this could warrant a YES resolution despite technical accuracy.
People are also trading
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RbGxbII44eE
Just add a quit good guess for what is going on. In my opinion it is very different from LK99 as they are not publishing a research paper but instead claiming to produce a product, which will likely be shipped this year. I think the AGI clayme is strange, but the rest with Nordic Nano seams legit. But scalling and building can be harder then expected. Let's see.:)
If the technical stated values are True, will this market evaluat to true? Like 400 Wh/kg, 5 C charging...?
@TobiasWegener If I deem Donut Lab's claims to be True, I will resolve No because it means I did NOT deem their claims to be false. Assuming you meant the more interesting question of if the technical stated values are True, will I resolve No, I'd say not necessarily, though almost certainly. If indeed they've managed to create a battery that fulfills all the technical stated values, there would have to be an extremely big caveat somewhere for me to be compelled to resolve YES. Like for example (not that I think this is likely) they claim it could be made from globally abundant materials and indeed the materials are available throughout the globe but they are so hard to extract and refine that the batteries end up being way to difficult to manufacture at scale or something.
More info just dropped: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8PjlwZVLVE
This almost feels like the LK-99 superconductor thing, nowhere near as important but still a very bid deal!
I wont to believe but also my mind is saying "ain't no fucking way".
@THEWINNER Right now we have not seen any definitive evidence confirming it's a scam but also if it were a scam, it would be playing out exactly the way it's playing out. If only some of the stuff they've claimed was true, like if they've succeeded in creating supercapacitors that can rival, or even be in the ballpark of lithium ion batteries in energy density, that would still be a huge upset in the energy storage industry. But they're basically claiming something that charges and has the lifespan of supercapacitors, higher energy density than lithium ion, and also a manufacturing process that is easy enough that it is rapidly scalable. That's just too much to be believable without proper evidence.
Let's imagine an independent teardown reveals that the first shipping "battery" or "battery pack" is more accurately described as a capacitor or bank of capacitors. (The presenter only once said "cell", when describing heat tolerance.) Further, that the claims about charging speed, density, safety, etc are individually true at least some of the time during usage. However, unlike lithium ion batteries they have a large downside like fast self-discharge which was not mentioned in this video.
Would this feel false or disingenuous to you?
@LoganTurner Probably not. It would probably depend somewhat on how large and disruptive the downside is. I know this is not a rigorous definition, but for me it would depend heavily on wether someone buying their system based on what was advertised on the YouTube video would feel scammed upon using it, on average.