Will any of the following automakers deliver a road‑legal passenger vehicle using Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery as its main traction battery to a retail customer on or before 2030‑12‑31: Toyota, Volkswagen Group, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, Kia, BYD, General Motors (incl. Chevrolet), BMW, Mercedes‑Benz, Stellantis, Suzuki, Changan, Geely, Renault, Mitsubishi, Porsche, Mazda?
Resolution criteria
Covered automakers: Exactly this list:
Toyota; Volkswagen Group; Ford; Hyundai; Honda; Nissan; Kia; BYD; General Motors (including Chevrolet as a GM brand); BMW; Mercedes‑Benz; Stellantis; Suzuki; Changan; Geely; Renault; Mitsubishi; Porsche; Mazda.Vehicle type:
Must be a series‑production, road‑legal passenger vehicle (car, SUV, or light van) homologated for public roads in at least one country.
Prototypes, concept cars, test mules, and track‑only vehicles do not count.
Battery requirement:
The automaker or Donut Lab must explicitly state that the production vehicle’s main traction battery is Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery (or a clearly named direct successor from Donut Lab), not just “a solid‑state battery” in general.
Retail delivery requirement:
At least one non‑employee retail customer must physically receive the vehicle (not just place a preorder or deposit).
Evidence can be an official press release, regulatory filing, or reputable news report clearly stating that customer deliveries of that specific model have started.
Time requirement:
Resolves YES if such a delivery happens on or before 2030‑12‑31 local time at the place of delivery.
Resolves NO if no such documented delivery by any listed automaker has occurred by that date.
Edge cases
If Donut Battery is used by OEMs not on the list (e.g., Verge motorcycles or a smaller car brand), this does not affect this market; it still resolves NO unless one of the named automakers qualifies.
If a listed automaker uses a different in‑house solid‑state pack, that does not count; it must be explicitly identified as a Donut Lab battery.
If Donut Lab is acquired or rebranded, the battery still counts as long as it is clearly the same Donut technology and this is publicly stated.
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Donut seems to be repackaging Nordic Nano's capacitors as solid-state batteries. They both have press releases describing the partnership, and the advertised specs of Nordic Nano's capacitors and Donut's batteries match exactly.
Donut reportedly had a booth at CES but only had mockups there, with no real hardware at all. The videos showing the charging also look very odd: both batteries and capacitors draw less current as they get closer to full charge, but their video shows charging with a constant current.
It seems to be just fraud on the part of Nordic Nano. Either that or this small company just pushed the state of the art by orders of magnitude, but I'd put the probability of that below 5%.
Toyota → In-house + Idemitsu Kosan, Sumitomo (2027-28)
Volkswagen Group → QuantumScape - 16% stake, $300M invested
Ford → Solid Power - $130M investment
Hyundai → Factorial Energy partnership (2030+)
Honda → In-house - 43B yen, pilot line operational
Nissan → In-house - pilot plant 2024, production 2028-29
Kia → Factorial Energy (same as Hyundai parent)
BYD → In-house development (2027 small-scale)
General Motors → LG Energy/Ultium + exploring suppliers
BMW → Solid Power partnership (~2030, apparentlly)
Mercedes-Benz → Factorial Energy (demoo fleet 2026)
Stellantis → Factorial Energy (testing 2026)
Suzuki → Following Toyota partnership
Changan → CATL and Chinese suppliers
Geely → CATL + own Farasis Energy subsidiary
Renault → Nissan Alliance + LG/Envision AESC
Mitsubishi → Nissan Alliance partners
Porsche → QuantumScape via VW Group parent
Mazda → Toyota partnership + Panasonic
this is what i found, could be wrong, i feel like this is likely below 10%
@MikhailTal If I may ask, why are you so interested in batteries and electric stuff, no judgement but just curious
@JeromeHPowell And yeah, super interested in transition to green economy among other things. I'm finding this place is a great way to cut through BS.
@MikhailTal yea, your markets are very interesting b/c of the high liquidity and the very...niche nature of many of them. Keep it up, though, that's what this place loves!
@MikhailTal Also appreciate the interesting markets and great liquidity! But can you be a bit more proactive with resolving closed markets?