California Proposition 34 (2024) Passes - Regulate Health Care Orgs' Political Spending
48
๐•Š2754
Nov 28
98.1%
chance

California Proposition 34 is a ballot measure that would force AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF) to spend their revenues from a federal subsidy on patient care. This market shall resolve YES if voters approve Proposition 34.

Currently AHF spends money in politics in ballot measures, most recently a string of rent control ballot measures up to and including this year's Proposition 33.

Prop 34 requires a majority to pass.

https://calmatters.org/california-voter-guide-2024/propositions/prop-34-patient-spending/

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SF Chronicle called Prop 32 but not this measure (Prop 34) yet.

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article295633954.html

https://caanet.org/prop-34-passes/

Both sides agree it passed, still no official call from news outlets. Seems to be well in callable territory to me.

How does the last 50% of tallying take a week, when the first half happens in a night?

@Shihan Election night returns include (a) in-person voting and (b) mail ballots returned early. Some ~50% of ballots are received as mail ballots on Election Day or later and take time to process: verifying signatures, opening ballots, scanning cards, checking for errors. California accepts ballots that are postmarked by Election Day and arrive up to seven days after Election Day, to account for mail delays. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/why-california-takes-weeks-to-count-votes-while-states-like-florida-are-faster/ar-AA1tXEB5?ocid=BingNewsSerp

This is still too close to call according to the SF Chronicle. https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2024/election-results/california

I can't believe people.

Results can be found here. This one is close at 51.5% and there's still a lot of the vote left to bring in. https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/ballot-measures

Sweepified

Just for my own knowledge going forward, how could I have gotten my own CA ballot prop question sweepified? Better advertising?

https://manifold.markets/zax/which-of-californias-november-2024-jgzgtsq3fb

@zax I believe currently only Yes/No markets can become sweepstakes markets. Multiple choice markets don't qualify.

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