Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official results of the California General Election held on November 3, 2026, as certified by the California Secretary of State (results published at sos.ca.gov).

For the purposes of this market, a proposition is considered to have "passed" if it receives a majority of affirmative ("Yes") votes (greater than 50%), regardless of whether it is subsequently blocked, voided, or modified by a competing measure or court ruling.

• Precondition: If California Proposition 40 does not receive a majority of "Yes" votes, this market will resolve as N/A.

• YES: If California Proposition 40 receives a majority of "Yes" votes, and at least one of California Proposition 41 or California Proposition 42 also receives a majority of "Yes" votes.

• NO: If California Proposition 40 receives a majority of "Yes" votes, and neither Proposition 41 nor Proposition 42 receives a majority of "Yes" votes.

Background

The November 3, 2026 California ballot features three highly contested, interacting tax measures:

• Proposition 40: Imposes a one-time 5% state tax on the worldwide net worth of California residents with assets exceeding $1 billion.

• Proposition 41: Requires the State Auditor to conduct public audits of programs funded by new special taxes and prohibits new state taxes that exempt their revenues from the state spending limit.

• Proposition 42: Prohibits new state taxes on personal property (including business interests, financial assets, and retirement accounts) and restricts retroactive taxation.

Propositions 41 and 42 were placed on the ballot by opponents of the wealth tax. Because they contain provisions designed to nullify Proposition 40, they serve as direct countermeasures. Under California law, if competing or conflicting measures pass on the same ballot, the measure that receives the highest number of affirmative votes prevails.

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