Background

Partido Novo (New Party) is a classical liberal/libertarian political party in Brazil founded in 2011. It currently holds a few seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2022 elections. The party advocates for minimal state intervention, free market policies, and is known for refusing public electoral funds, relying instead on private donations and member contributions.

The Chamber of Deputies is the lower house of Brazil's National Congress, with 513 seats total. The next national legislative elections are scheduled for October 2026, alongside the presidential election.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if Partido Novo gains at least two additional seats in the Chamber of Deputies in the 2026 Brazilian national legislative elections -- as measured by Wikipedia's portuguese page on said elections.

The market will resolve as NO if:

• Partido Novo gains fewer than 2 additional seats

• Partido Novo maintains its current number of seats

• Partido Novo loses seats

Considerations

Several factors could impact Partido Novo's performance:

• Brazil's electoral barrier clause requires parties to receive at least 2% of valid national votes to access public funding and TV/radio time

• Party mergers and federations have become more common in Brazilian politics

• Partido Novo's refusal of public funding may limit its campaign reach compared to larger parties

• The party's performance may be influenced by the presidential race and broader political polarization in Brazil