Will Republicanos have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026?
Will Republicanos have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026?
4
90Ṁ982026
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Republicanos party changes its name, resolves according to its successor's ministerial positions on the closing date. If it splits into two or more parties, the successor party is considered to be the party that inherits ≥60% of Republicanos' seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Partido Progressista have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026?
29% chance
Will União Brasil have at least two ministerial positions in Brazilian government on March 31st, 2026?
80% chance
Will Geraldo Alckmin be the President of Brazil by Dec 31st 2025?
12% chance
Who will be on the ballot for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Brazil more authoritarian in 2025?
69% chance
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Will Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
55% chance
Will Partido Novo gain at least 2 seats in the 2026 Brazilian national legislative elections to the Chamber of Deputies?
53% chance
Will Jair Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6% chance
Will Brazil 2026 election have the same outcome as the US 2024 election?
10% chance