Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Brazil's 10-year Government Bond Yield closes on Monday, October 26, 2026 at least 100 basis points (1.00 percentage point) higher than its closing yield on the previous trading session (Friday, October 23, 2026). Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

• Formula: Close (October 26, 2026) - Close (October 23, 2026) >= 1.00%

• Primary source: Investing.com Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Historical Data.

• Secondary fallback: Trading Economics Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield or official OTC interbank yield fixings published by B3 / ANBIMA.

• If the market is closed or no trading data is published for October 26, 2026, the market will resolve to NO unless trading was officially postponed, in which case the creator should clarify or adjust the resolution date accordingly.

Background

October 26, 2026 marks the immediate first trading session following the second round of Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff election, held on Sunday, October 25, 2026. A 100-basis-point (1.00%) single-day move represents an exceptionally large swing for a sovereign 10-year benchmark, typically seen only during severe political realignments, major fiscal policy surprises, or acute macroeconomic shocks. Benchmark yields in October 2026 traded near 13.0%, meaning a 100-basis-point spike would require the yield to close at or above ~14.0% on Monday.

This description was mostly generated by AI, but reviewed and verified by me.