Will a significant number of Palestinians from Gaza be permanently resettled in Egypt and/or Jordan under Trump's term?
➕
Plus
15
Ṁ1678
2029
20%
chance

*Alice Cuddy & Jon Donnison

Role,BBC News, Jerusalem

26 January 2025

US President Donald Trump has said he wants Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians from Gaza.

Trump said he had made the request to Jordan's King Abdullah and planned to ask Egypt's president on Sunday, too.

Describing Gaza as a "demolition site", Trump said: "You're talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing". He added that the move "could be temporary" or "could be long-term".*

Clarification: for the purpose of this market "Significant number" is defined as at least 1,000,000 people.

Factors to Consider: Political resistance from Jordan and Egypt, willingness of Gazans to leave, international pressure, and potential Israeli policies.

  • Update 2025-01-30 (PST): - Resettlement refers to mass forced resettlement. (AI summary of creator comment)

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Clarification: for the purpose of this market "Significant number" is defined as at least 1000,000 people.

Is this number a typo? It’s the difference between less than a tenth and over half of the population.

@OP this isnt a typo, its exactly what trump says he'll make Jordan and Egypt agree to

@PoliticalEconomyPK I mean there’s a missing comma. Is the number supposed to be one million or is it one hundred thousand?

@OP sorry for the missing comma, added it now. Yes its supposed to be million

Does resettlement here mean any population movement, including voluntary illegal immigration / people-smuggling? Or just voluntary legal immigration? Or even specifically just state-organised resettlement programs?

@TheAllMemeingEye the use of the word resettlement is in the context of trump's recent statements about him asking jordan and egypt to "take in palestinians" to "clean out gaza"

From the article

"Describing Gaza as a "demolition site", Trump said: "You're talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing". He added that the move "could be temporary" or "could be long-term".*

@PoliticalEconomyPK given that he wasn't clear, which precise definition do you intend to use?

@TheAllMemeingEye mass forced resettlement

bought Ṁ15/Ṁ15 NO at 34%
filled a Ṁ15 NO at 24% order

@PoliticalEconomyPK thanks for clarifying 👍

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules