Goal of this market

The intent is to try to determine the chances that Netanyahu himself sends a clear and public message that the war is over, consistent with Trump’s rhetoric and with the war end wording of the two peace deals already signed.

Context – Timeline

Netanyahu signed in September a 20-points peace plan with Trump where the third point is “If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will completely end”. The 20-points are not yet signed by both sides, and Netanyahu have never said the war is ended. Full text by WhiteHouse

Netanyanhu signed with Trump and Hamas on the 8th of October a Implementation Steps for President Trump’s proposal for a “Comprehensive End of Gaza War”. The point 2 says “The war will immediately end upon the approval of the Israeli government.” Full text in Wikipedia

The Israeli government met on October 9th, after a 3-4 hours delay to the expected start, and the meeting lasted for more than six hours, with public rejections to end the war by some members. While the press published the government approval to the peace plan, and many headlines reflected the hostage release deal, I couldn’t find any headline like “Israel government approves to end the war”, neither “Israel government rejects ending the war”.

Trump declared multiple times very clearly that the war has ended. Example 13th October: Trump, aboard Air Force One, declares twice that the Gaza war 'is over,' adds: 'You understand that?' | The Times of Israel

Netanyahu never did a clear public statement declaring the end of the war. The statements are vague and leave the door open for continuation, such as in this example: Netanyahu hails war's 'victories,' warns military campaign not over, urges unity | The Times of Israel

Resolution criteria

Wording

“The war is over”, “the war has ended”, “we signed the end of the war” and similar clear statements will resolve as YES. No need to meet a specific word structure, as long as:

- It is about the past/present, and not the future. “The war will end” is not sufficient for a YES

- It is presented as a fact, not as an intention or process. “We intend to end the war”, “we are in the process of ending the war”, will not be enough.

Timing

The declaration needs to be done before the end of Trump’s ongoing visit to Israel.

Netanyahu talking to the world

The declaration needs to be verbalized by Netanyahu directly to the public.

The press publishing words on Netanyahu’s mouth, will not suffice for a YES.

Any written peace declaration signed by Netanyahu will not suffice for a YES, if Netanyahu doesn’t show up in front of the public to verbalize the end of the war explicitly.

Trump saying comments such as “Netanyahu and I ended the war” in a press release, next to Netanyahu, will resolve as NO.

Anything that is different than Netanyahu giving the message directly to the public, resolves as NO. I expect low chances of a NA resolution. Ambiguity will likely result in NO, as we are forecasting on the release of a very clear public message.