Resolution criteria

Prediction markets currently sit in a legal grey zone in India, with no official rulebook or dedicated regulator. This market resolves YES if prediction markets (also called opinion trading platforms or event contracts) are explicitly legalized through federal legislation or a binding Supreme Court ruling by December 31, 2034. Legalization requires formal regulatory approval and licensing framework, not merely continued operation in a grey area.

Resolution sources: Official Gazette of India (for legislation), Supreme Court of India judgments, SEBI or relevant regulatory body official statements.

Background

In India, the legality of prediction markets hinges on whether they are classified as games of skill or chance, as wagering agreements are generally void under the Indian Contract Act. Several "opinion trading" platforms operate in India, such as Better Opinions and Probo, enabling users to place bets on various events including sports and elections. However, these platforms categorize themselves as games of skill and refrain from offering services in certain states, but this self-classification lacks judicial or legislative validation.

The Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 was passed in both Houses of Parliament and received Presidential Assent on August 22, 2025, which may consolidate gambling regulation power in the federal government. The Act does not provide concessions to online real-money games of skill and imposes a blanket prohibition on all "online money games."

Considerations

The Supreme Court recently reinstated a petition seeking a ban on opinion trading apps, showing regulatory uncertainty. The only viable path forward for such platforms would be to seek regulatory legitimacy, obtain recognition as a stock exchange, and get approval from the central government—which would validate event contracts and remove future legal burdens. The recent 2025 Online Gaming Act's blanket prohibition on real-money games creates a significant headwind for legalization, though prediction markets could theoretically be carved out as a distinct category through future amendments or separate legislation.