Will Trump legalize prediction markets?
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Plus
16
Ṁ1200
2029
14%
chance

Trump has been re-truthing his Polymarket odds because they favor him so heavily compared to other sources.

Is this the long-awaited path to prediction market mainstreaming?

Resolves YES if:

  • political betting is legalized or de-facto deregulated during a Trump presidency.

Resolves NO if:

  • The above happens during a non-Trump presidency.

  • Trump completes a second term without any indication of intending to pursue a third.

  • Trump dies.

FINE PRINT:

  • My threshold for "de-facto deregulation" is that it should be possible for Americans to place relatively unrestricted bets on e.g. Polymarket, and such a platform should be operating "in the open," not just hiding in a temporary legal grey area between permitted and banned. A good indicator would be if Polymarket feels comfortable buying subway ads.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

The current status quo is just a stay and Kalshi's court case is ongoing, so it's inadequate to resolve the market NO here and now.

sold Ṁ57 YES

@MichaelWheatley I recognize we're coming close to the "de-facto deregulated" description I provided, but because it's such a temporarily state of affairs, which merely happens to coincide with an election, I'm still not counting it.

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