Will the next pope be a Dark Horse candidate?
50
100Ṁ22k
May 13
47%
chance
6

Will the next pope be a sleeper candidate instead of one of the current 'frontrunners'?

The three frontrunners according to betting markets are presently Parolin, Tagle and Zuppi. Will the next pope be one of those (Resolves NO) or a surprise winner (Resolves YES)?

Catholicism
Vatican
Pope
Pope Francis
Papal Elections
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Why did this close already? Conclave doesn't begin for another 12 hours

@bens My bad, that was the default close date

bought Ṁ5 YES

pizzaballa not a leading candidate???

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 35% order

@Conflux careful, there's a mismatch between description and title! I think @MichaelWheatley meant to phrase the description in the inverse

@Conflux Oh, I see Manifold has a different set of frontrunners. Fixed that for you:

@MichaelWheatley wait... the description does not match the title. Does this resolve YES or NO if one of Parolin, Tagle, or Zuppi is selected?

@bens Sorry about that, you're right, I wasn't explicit in expressing which outcome corresponds to which resolution. I've clarified the description.

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