Close date updated to 2024-01-01 10:59 am
1,000People are also trading
I bought NO shares believing that this question was asking if one of the obvious POC cardinals like Tagle or Turkson would become Pope, not whether a pope who has never claimed to be a POC has two mixed-race grandparents. Strongly oppose a YES resolution.
@Keepcalmandchill Are you even active?
Should resolve YES:
1) The creator already specified that they consider Maradiaga to be a POC lower in the comments. Prevost, emphasizing the cultural construction of race, rather than explicitly the color of one's skin.
2) Credible sources such as the New York Times (below) refer to Prevost as "descended from Creole people of color".
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/us/pope-leo-creole-new-orleans.html
3) From wikipedia:
"His mother was the daughter of Louisiana Creole parents, Joseph Martínez from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic,[14] and Louise Baquié from New Orleans, who were of African, French, and Spanish descent. Martínez was of mixed Afro-Haitian descent, and Baquié was a mixed-race Black Creole.[12][15][16][17]"
In the US, someone with this genealogy is commonly understood to be a "POC", and he could absolutely claim "POC" status on, say, a job application or college application.
4) He has lived the majority of his life in the country of Peru.
@bens I have a stake here, but
1) Very different case to Prevost
2) Article says very specifically the family didn't identify as black, did not discuss Creole roots
3) Think what you mentioned in (1), that race is something which is cultural and socially constructed, is important here. Family didn't discuss Creole roots, we have no indication he sees himself that way, everyone recognizes him as white. I don't think him not passing an arbitrary one drop rule matters here.
4) Big distinction: none of his childhood life. Even if it was though most people would not think that makes him ethnically Peruvian.
Would be very happy to put this up for poll.
@bens If this kind of circumstantial evidence counts, I've made ~3.5k mana by buying "Light Brown" at absurdly low prices in this market: [https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/skin-color-of-the-next-pope] because everyone was rushing to buy "White," not reading the description :P
(fill my exit order if you want)
@copiumarc I'm like 40% being silly but 60% I do in fact think that due to there being zero criteria on this market, the current pope may indeed count, especially in light of the NYT reporting
@bens I think the fairest way to resolve the market if mods don't want to N/A or come to a joint decision is probably just to make a poll w/ no description and let it sit for awhile.
Hopefully people will learn their lesson w/ ambiguous markets
@copiumarc I don't like the poll idea because it still won't determine the truth. I.e., it won't answer the question "Is Leo XIV actually a POC?", but instead "Does Manifold think, according to their category of POC, that Leo XIV is a POC?"
And there just isn't a true or false answer to the question "Is X a POC". So I'd go with N/A.
But I definitely was overconfident in thinking that my category of POC is universal :-) Well, I'll be smarter next time...
@SqrtMinusOne It's largely culturally/socially determined I don't see the issue with using a poll seems like a good way to resolve that.
