Will Polymarket's election odds match Nate Silver's (+/- 5) on election night? | Manifold

Will Polymarket's election odds match Nate Silver's (+/- 5) on election night?

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There's a whale who has spent over ten million dollars betting on Trump on Polymarket. Will Polymarket's Trump odds be within 5% of Nate Silver's going into the election? (When polls close in Pennsylvania)

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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Also I'm assuming we are using decimals? E.g. if the odds are off by 5.1% this resolves to no?

@HillaryClinton right

Polls close at 8:00pm, November 5th ET in PA.

Can you please confirm this will end at that time per your description?

You've stated two conflicting times, neither of them precise. Can you pick more specific resolution criteria? Thx

@JamesBaker3 when polls close on the East Coast.

@JamesBaker3 what are the two conflicting times?

@MichaelWheatley I was referring to "on election night" and "going into the election" fyi

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