I said I would use the numbers as of the close of Pennsylvania polls, but I see now that there are a couple states (including other swing states) that close earlier. I'll resolve this NO now.

The spirit of the market is a clear NO in any case.

Nate will stop updating his model on 11/4.

Polymarket will probably have wild swings on election day

Also I'm assuming we are using decimals? E.g. if the odds are off by 5.1% this resolves to no?

@HillaryClinton right

Polls close at 8:00pm, November 5th ET in PA.

Can you please confirm this will end at that time per your description?

@HillaryClinton Oops, I see now that Penn closes its polls an hour after Georgia. Georgia coudl definitely shape the Poly odds, so I'm going to resolve NO now that the first polls (KY and Indiana) have closed.

You've stated two conflicting times, neither of them precise. Can you pick more specific resolution criteria? Thx

@JamesBaker3 when polls close on the East Coast.

@JamesBaker3 what are the two conflicting times?

@MichaelWheatley I was referring to "on election night" and "going into the election" fyi