Will Polymarket's election odds match Nate Silver's (+/- 5) on election night?
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Ṁ4283resolved Nov 5
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There's a whale who has spent over ten million dollars betting on Trump on Polymarket. Will Polymarket's Trump odds be within 5% of Nate Silver's going into the election? (When polls close in Pennsylvania)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@HillaryClinton Oops, I see now that Penn closes its polls an hour after Georgia. Georgia coudl definitely shape the Poly odds, so I'm going to resolve NO now that the first polls (KY and Indiana) have closed.
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