What works will be discovered in the Herculaneum library? (Vesuvius Challenge)
Mini
4
148
2025
76%
Any New Prose Work from Aristotle
61%
Any (New) Complete Poem from Sappho
59%
Ptolemy's biography of Alexander
57%
Augustus's Autobiography
52%
Claudius's History of the Etruscans
52%
Claudius's History of Carthage
43%
Ovid's Medea
41%
The Cypria
41%
The Babylonians (Aristophanes lost play)

Wishlist for works recovered from the Herculaneum papyrus scrolls. (Vesuvius Challenge)

Resolves to 50% if only fragments are recovered. I'm rounding up to 100% if 90% of a work is recovered.

See also this linked market:

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By when?

@WieDan When the library is fully excavated. So it might a while if they for instance leave a third of it buried as they've done with Pompeii

@MichaelWheatley I guess I can resolve some NO early if it's organized by subject and some subjects get completely recovered without finding works that would've been shelved there

@MichaelWheatley I think the current timeline for scanning the already found 800 scrolls is 5 years, then they might find more in other sections of the villa if the start digging. So my point is that it could take a very long time.

@WieDan Yeah, it's going to be a long term market. Feel free to create a competitor market if you want to bet on shorter term outcomes.

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