What percentage of sought-after works will be discovered in the Herculaneum Library?

Question

When the library is fully excavated, I will resolve this to the average percentage across options in the following multichoice market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/MichaelWheatley/what-works-will-be-discovered-in-th)I will only average the scores of specific named works. I will use my judgement to exclude any options I think were submitted for the purposes of manipulating this market, and due to that subjectivity will not be trading in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 36% chance (5 traders, as of Apr 10, 2024).