Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?
12
100Ṁ388
2026
15%
chance

Context

The G7 countries are:

United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan.

All of them are leading or widely using generative AI (such as ChatGPT, Bard, Claude, etc.) in various areas—education, business, government, defense. But... there are growing risks and tensions.

Why might this happen?

  • Strict regulation already underway:

The European Union has already approved the AI Act, and countries like Italy have already temporarily banned ChatGPT in 2023 due to privacy concerns.

France, Germany, and Canada have investigations and public action against AI models.

  • Perceived risks growing:

Disinformation, deepfakes, political manipulation: in an election year like 2024, this has become a global concern.

Labor market: Unions are pressuring governments about the use of AI to replace jobs.

Privacy and Sensitive Data: Generative AI can use, leak, or memorize unauthorized data.

  • Political and Cultural Pressure:

In countries with a strong tradition of privacy protection (such as Germany), there is political room to ban generative tools that don't comply with data protection laws (such as the GDPR).

More protectionist or populist parties could use fear of AI as a catalyst.

  • Extreme Events Can Accelerate Decisions:

A serious incident involving generative AI—such as a deepfake causing public panic, or a leak of sensitive data—can force governments to make swift, drastic decisions.

What constitutes a "ban"?

It doesn't have to be a total ban. It could be:

  • Banning certain public tools (such as ChatGPT, Midjourney, DALL-E, etc.).

  • Blocking access via the national internet.

  • Restrictions that make use virtually impossible (heavy fines, licensing requirements, open source requirements, etc.).

What doesn't count as a ban:

  • Only requiring transparency.

  • Restricting government use only.

  • Temporary suspensions (unless they last until 2026).

  • Prohibiting certain specific uses (e.g., AI for facial recognition).

  • Update 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A ban on a single public generative AI tool (e.g., ChatGPT) by a G7 country is sufficient for the market to resolve to Yes, even if other AI tools remain available.

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So if a single GenAI tool is banned this resolves Yes?

@rayman2000 Yes, it counts. For example, if Japan bans only ChatGPT until the deadline, even if Claude and other AIs remain available, the market closes as "Yes."

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