Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?
54
950Ṁ7154
resolved Mar 9
Resolved
YES

From https://metaculus.com/questions/16327/israels-rating-in-freedom-in-the-world-2024/

Freedom in the World is a yearly report that measures the degree of civil liberties and political rights in the different countries in the World. It is published by the NGO Freedom House.

Each country gets two scores: one for civil liberties and the other for political rights. The scale of the scores is 1-7, where 1 is the best score (highest degree of liberty/rights) and 7 is the worst. If the sum of the country’s two scores is 5 or lower, it is rated as (Fully) Free. If it’s greater than 5 but lower than 11, it’s rated as Partly Free. If it’s 11 or more, it’s rated as Not Free.

Israel has always been rated as (Fully) Free in the report, since the first report (1973). In the latest report, that was published in March 2023 and covers the year of 2022, Israel’s score for Civil liberties was 3 and its score for Political Rights was 2. The sum of the two scores is 5, hence making Israel rated as Free . Currently, 84 countries are rated Free, 54 are rated Partly Free and 47 are rated Not Free.

Israel’s scores have been declining in recent years. While in the years 2006 to 2017 Israel’s Civil Liberties score was 2 and its score for Political Rights was 1, Since 2018 the scores declined. In 2019 it got to scores of 2 and 3, which remained since then. This level of scores had not been seen in Israel since the 1977 report. However, the declines have not been enough to change Israel’s rating, which remains Free.

In November 2022 a new government was elected. The new government, formed in the last days of December 2022, contains some far-right elements. In January 2023 the government started legislating a judicial reform, that strip some power from the judicial system. In response, mass protests and strikes erupted. The reforms would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional.

In late March 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a temporary pause to the legislation. The main opposition parties welcomed the decision very cautiously. The street demonstrations did not stop, however, as many participants denounced the freeze as temporary.

The attempts to legislate the judicial reform are not yet reflected in the latest Freedom in the World report, as it covers the year of 2022 and the legislation began in January 2023. The next report, covering the year 2023, is supposed to be published in early 2024. It is uncertain whether the judicial reform will pass until then, and if it does – what would its effect on Israel’s freedom ratings be.

More information about the reform and protests can be found on Wikipedia.

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