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MANIFOLD
Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]
11
Ṁ1kṀ4.4k
Oct 27
3%
General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time
2%
No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)
2%
Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections
2%
Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency
Resolved
YES
Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index
Resolved
YES
Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time
Resolved
N/A
Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed

Please add your own predictions to this market.

  • Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:

    • Legislation Passage: The judicial overhaul legislation must be passed through the legislative process.

    • Supreme Court Challenge: The legislation must withstand a Supreme Court challenge.

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@traders sorry for neglecting this market.

Motions regarding the judgest selection committee are still pending.

Several other legislations also being challenged (Mahash, attorney general, ombudsman selection …)

However several other judiciary-related laws that are much less controversial (example: abolishing Apropim) has passed unchallenged.

In retrospect I find my wording for this question too vague , and I’m inclined to resolve it as N/A.

I am very open for discussion before I do that.

the supreme court is expected to discuss the motion against Bar dismissal next week.

bought Ṁ180 YES

@traders legistlation regarding the judges selection committee passed today. I will wait a for a supreme court challenge before resolving.

bought Ṁ25 NO

Does the judicial overhaul legislation have to go into effect?

@RazDvora it has to pass legislation and withstand the supreme court challenge that would likely follow.

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