Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]
12
Ṁ1kṀ4.8k
resolved Oct 28
Resolved
YES
Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index
Resolved
YES
Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time
Resolved
N/A
Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed
Resolved
NO
No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)
Resolved
NO
General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time
Resolved
NO
Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections
Resolved
NO
Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency

Please add your own predictions to this market.

  • Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:

    • Legislation Passage: The judicial overhaul legislation must be passed through the legislative process.

    • Supreme Court Challenge: The legislation must withstand a Supreme Court challenge.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ446
2Ṁ10
3Ṁ6
4Ṁ5
5Ṁ3
Sort by:

@traders official end of term is Feb 2028, but my original intention was before market end date (elections).

Will you accept a NO resolution tomorrow? WDYT?

@traders sorry for neglecting this market.

Motions regarding the judgest selection committee are still pending.

Several other legislations also being challenged (Mahash, attorney general, ombudsman selection …)

However several other judiciary-related laws that are much less controversial (example: abolishing Apropim) has passed unchallenged.

In retrospect I find my wording for this question too vague , and I’m inclined to resolve it as N/A.

I am very open for discussion before I do that.

the supreme court is expected to discuss the motion against Bar dismissal next week.

bought Ṁ180 YES

@traders legistlation regarding the judges selection committee passed today. I will wait a for a supreme court challenge before resolving.

bought Ṁ25 NO

Does the judicial overhaul legislation have to go into effect?

@RazDvora it has to pass legislation and withstand the supreme court challenge that would likely follow.