Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]
6
1kṀ1760
2026
76%
Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed
76%
Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time
59%
Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index
47%
Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency
40%
General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time
17%
Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections
4%
No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)

Please add your own predictions to this market.

  • Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:

    • Legislation Passage: The judicial overhaul legislation must be passed through the legislative process.

    • Supreme Court Challenge: The legislation must withstand a Supreme Court challenge.

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Israel
Democracy
Israeli Politics
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the supreme court is expected to discuss the motion against Bar dismissal next week.

bought Ṁ180 YES

@traders legistlation regarding the judges selection committee passed today. I will wait a for a supreme court challenge before resolving.

bought Ṁ25 NO

Does the judicial overhaul legislation have to go into effect?

@RazDvora it has to pass legislation and withstand the supreme court challenge that would likely follow.

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