Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]
7
1kṀ20952026
76%
Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed
67%
Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index
48%
Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency
40%
General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time
6%
Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections
3%
No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)
Resolved
YESHead of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time
Please add your own predictions to this market.
Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
Legislation Passage: The judicial overhaul legislation must be passed through the legislative process.
Supreme Court Challenge: The legislation must withstand a Supreme Court challenge.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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