From https://metaculus.com/questions/15102/war-between-egypt-and-israel/
Egypt and Israel have a history of military conflicts. In total, five wars (including the low-intensity War of Attrition) have been fought with Egyptian and Israeli forces on opposing sides. Since the 1978 Camp David accords, however, no such conflicts have taken place. Despite this, conflicts may arise in the future. In Egypt, 84% of the population opposes diplomatic recognition of Israel, while only 13% support it (full survey). This is despite the Egyptian government doing so over 40 years ago.
1,000
3.00It is a definitely a worry (as in 5-10% risk, of more like 100K deaths). The situation with Egypt is not great. But after 40 years of peace that already survived a short regime change and who's geopolitical rational did not change, you can not possibly put war in 5 years over 50% - and in my opinion much lower still. Even if you ignore the general trend in the opposite direction - more recognition of Israel by regional powers, and great weakening of the main oposed coalition