Preference cascade incoming?

@Shai In this market or in Russia?

@CertaintyOfVictory Russia, A lot easier to go out and protest when Putin's rule is shaky

Clock is ticking and still no signs of serious resistance. Wagner are breaking through the first road blocks and elites are fleeing Moscow. Am I updating too quickly?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672606468569284608?s=20

@PeterWildeford since you bought M1000 no, what is your model of how this will play out?

@ElliotDavies Lots of different possibilities!

@PeterWildeford okay to decompose: what's your probability of fighting in Moscow within 48 hours? What's your probability of capture of Moscow within 1 month?

@PeterWildeford If Prigozhin actually attacks Putin I don't see how he can win

@ElliotDavies 80% and 10%

@PeterWildeford nice, think we have identified a crux. I think there's a significant chance (~50%) that there will be limited resistance in Moscow- so we will find out soon enough

How much of an update would elites fleeing Moscow be for you - assuming true?

@ElliotDavies leaving Moscow is not a loss, but a repeated russian tactic (1812)

From Metaculus:
> A coup [...] is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, rebel group, military, or a dictator.

So this is a market on whether the above happens or not.

@Shai My understanding is that this is false - the coup has to be successful for this Q to resolve true.

@PeterWildeford If the government is seized and removed, I would say the coup is successful, yes.

If it fails, it doesn't count, I assume.

@ShadowyZephyr I think, since there's a distinction in the title between coup & regime change, that a failed one would count?

From the link, I believe a failed coup would not count, since that would be described as a "failed coup" rather than a "coup"

This question will resolve as Yes if, any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 6 of the following 10 sources publish a public report or article claiming that either a "coup" or "regime change" has taken place in Russia:

• The Economist

• The New York Times

• Reuters

• The Associated Press

• The Guardian

• The BBC

• Al Jazeera

• South China Morning Post

• The Institute for the Study of War

• International Crisis Group

This question will not resolve as Yes if Russian President Vladimir Putin (or any successor of Putin) voluntarily resigns during this period

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672363986736537600?t=m_XNeZmeuQWtfc0YH4zZww&s=19

This is part of a combination market: https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJLaW5n

Russia coup-nuke combination market

A combination of https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine and https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p using their resolution criteria. [link preview]

Arbitraging with https://manifold.markets/GavinMcCarthyBui/will-there-be-an-serious-coup-attem

@MetaculusBot this market should reopen

@jack Adjusted. Must have changed or I set it wrong from the start. Thanks!