I think this can be resolved https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

@AndyMartin The metaculus market on which this market seems to depend requires Ukraine to hold Kherson for seven days.

@brp missed that - thanks

The metaculus question resolved about 10 minutes ago. Kherson is in Ukraine.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10850/date-of-ukrainian-liberation-of-kherson/

@brp My bad. Looks like that is a commenter trying to get admin attention to close the question.

Copied from @IvanK:

"The Russian command announced the retreat from Kherson
https://meduza-io.translate.goog/news/2022/11/09/rossiyskoe-komandovanie-ob-yavilo-ob-otstuplenii-iz-hersona?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp"

@JoshuaB Backed up by NYT reporting too: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/09/world/ukraine-war-news-russia-updates/russia-kherson-ukraine-war?smid=url-share

Made a series of binary markets for this:

@CristianDobre This answer is invalid. If Ukraine never takes back Kherson, the market will resolve "not before 2024".

metaculus gives 20% to "not before 2024", the manifold market version seems off.