If Scotland leaves the UK, will they join the EU within 2 years?
27
72
440
2099
30%
chance

This market will stay open until it resolves YES or NO.

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What is the point of the market which potential will not resolve in our lifetime?

predicts NO

@ArekStryjski I think there's a point, as long as there's a reasonable chance of it resolving in our lifetimes then a hypothetical forecaster who can beat the market will still gain mana in expectation by betting in the market. And therefore the rest of us can benefit from the information that provides.

Markets like this can also be useful for proving a point. Say there are two people arguing about Scottish independence: one is in favour, but the other is against because they're worried about the impact on trade and hence the economy. The first guy might say "no, it could actually be good for trade because we can rejoin the EU straight away" to which the second guy responds "no, it'll take a significant amount of time to rejoin". This market gives them some evidence to resolve their disagreement, rich in turn could have an impact on their lives, like how much should the pro-independence guy campaign for independence.

@Fion should have a will Scotland join EU before England market too.

2years is tight, but an independent Scotlabd may rejoin faster than a tailspinng England

@Fion I undestend the question could be useful, however this are really 2 questions. The first one is: Will Scotland get independent soon?

If you think 'No', then betting on second part make no sense as you freeze your Mana forever. Only if you think 'Yes' it make sense to answer but in this case you may be biased.

So the question may be interesting, but buying asset you will never be able to sell make no much sense. At least I think it will be this way if it real money will be involved.

@ArekStryjski mana is never frozen, it returns to you in loans at a steady rate

@CromlynGames Ahh... OK I didn't know.

@ArekStryjski The constant loans are the only reason I made this market this way - people can stake as much as they like and get the majority back in a couple of weeks, but the bet is still on when Scotland ends up leaving.

predicts NO

One way for this to happen is if the UK rejoins before Scotland leaves. Negotiations could happen for Scotland to accede to the EU immediately upon independence.

"If Scotland leaves the UK, will they join the EU within 2 years?"

If Scotland leaves the UK, will they join the EU within 2 years?
predicts NO

Even in the event of Scottish independence, two years is way too fast to get EU membership. It will take Ukraine at least that long from the start of the process this year and they have basically universal support from member states.

Spain would be strongly against on account of trying to avoid Catalonian independence

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