Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve based on the ratio of China's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2024 to its official GDP figure, expressed as a percentage.
The official GDP figure is the one reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). The real GDP figure will be determined by reputable international organizations such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), or other credible economic research institutions on the basis of freight volume, energy and electricity consumption or loan volumes when they will become publicly available and when estimates will be seen as reliable and non manipulated.
The market will resolve to the percentage calculated by dividing the real GDP figure by the official GDP figure and multiplying by 100.
It will resolve by 2050, or as soon as credible non manipulated numbers are available for 2024. If no credible numbers get published then this market will resolve to NA on January 1st 2050.
1,000@TheAllMemeingEye We will hopefully reach some sort of academic consensus when the CCP's private data, such as data about freight volumes, electricity production, and consumption, is published in the future (e.g., following high credibility leaks, regime change, or transparency reforms).