Background

China surpassed the United States as the world's largest economy in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 2016. Currently, China's GDP (PPP) significantly exceeds that of the U.S. but hasn't yet reached quadruple its size. Factors influencing the trajectory include:

• Economic growth differentials between China and the U.S.

• Currency exchange dynamics

• Demographic and productivity trends

• Global economic conditions

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the first calendar year in which China's GDP measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) surpasses quadruple the GDP (PPP) of the United States, based on the data from:

1. IMF's World Economic Outlook database (April or October editions). If unavailable, revert to World Bank or OECD Economic Outlook.

2. Threshold: China's GDP (PPP) figure must be clearly at least triple the U.S. figure by a margin sufficient to avoid rounding errors (minimum of 1%).