On his "I Might Be Wrong" podcast for April 6, 2026, Jeff Maurer made a prediction about AI:

"[With 75% probability:] my guess is that in a 20-year horizon, it'll be a useful tool, a lot like the Internet. The Internet did change our lives in a lot of ways — some good, some bad. ... [It eventually] became 'You have to have the Internet to be plugged into society.' So I could see AI going the same way: useful tool, ends up getting used for a ton of things — some very good, some very bad, most of them pornographic — but it doesn't become unlike any technology that we've ever known."

This market resolves YES if Jeff Maurer (on IMBW or elsewhere) makes a public comment to the effect of "AI was a bigger deal than I thought it would be [back in 2026]" or "AI is impactful in a way that is unlike any other technology" before April 6, 2046. Before resolving this market YES, I will ask if anyone objects and finds his statement ambiguous or otherwise non-definitive. If challenged, I will use a Manifold poll to decide that case.

If Jeff Maurer is unable to comment due to death or illness, I will do my best in 2046 to ask his son for his best guess about what Jeff would have thought, and failing that, his wife. If I can't do that because we've all been murdered, enslaved, or turned into furniture by robots, this market should morally resolve YES. If I can't do that because we've all been murdered, enslaved, or turned into furniture by Iranians, immigrants, or nazis, then this market should morally resolve NO. 🪦