Elon Musk recently claimed on X that he expects human-level AI around the end of next year. Gary Marcus challenged him on this by offering to bet one million dollars to the contrary, and shortly after Damion Hankiejh offered to raise it to ten million: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=888615&post_id=143426134

If Elon Takes anyone up on a bet of this scale (1 million USD or more) in connection with his recent claim, this market resolves YES. If no bet is made within 30 days this market resolves NO. (I reserve the right to wait a week or so to resolve the market if it's unclear.)