What if Musk offers the bet with $1m+ with terms consistent with his tweet but that Marcus et al don’t like? Does it have to be accepted by someone to resolve YES?

@Tyler31 The bet must be accepted for it to count as "made" and resolve YES. Otherwise it's just an offer. But if Musk made an offer to Marcus and Marcus refuses but someone else accepts, that still counts as YES.

If this happens, it will almost certainly break down because their criteria for human-level AI will be ambiguous and both sides will claim they win.

@ShadowyZephyr Seems pretty plausible! (But also, for the purposes of this market, it's allowed for the bet to be more concrete and/or fail to ultimately resolve, and sill be YES.)

Why make yourself accountable for the predictions you make? Oh wait

What counts as “[taking] [some]one up on a bet” here? Musk has often made bold statements then later reversed them. Is this based on an initial claim to accept a bet? Or does it wait until money changes hands? Or something else?

@JimHays Any strong commitment to have money change hands will resolve YES, including e.g. tweeting at Gary Marcus that he's game, and Marcus posting confirmation that terms have been set. If Musk says yes, but things fall apart in setting terms this resolves NO. Money doesn't have to change hands, so if Musk makes a bet according to me, but later backs out, this still counts as making the bet and resolves YES.