Elon Musk recently claimed on X that he expects human-level AI around the end of next year. Gary Marcus challenged him on this by offering to bet one million dollars to the contrary, and shortly after Damion Hankiejh offered to raise it to ten million: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=888615&post_id=143426134
If Elon Takes anyone up on a bet of this scale (1 million USD or more) in connection with his recent claim, this market resolves YES. If no bet is made within 30 days this market resolves NO. (I reserve the right to wait a week or so to resolve the market if it's unclear.)
1,000
3.00@Tyler31 The bet must be accepted for it to count as "made" and resolve YES. Otherwise it's just an offer. But if Musk made an offer to Marcus and Marcus refuses but someone else accepts, that still counts as YES.
@ShadowyZephyr Seems pretty plausible! (But also, for the purposes of this market, it's allowed for the bet to be more concrete and/or fail to ultimately resolve, and sill be YES.)
@JimHays Any strong commitment to have money change hands will resolve YES, including e.g. tweeting at Gary Marcus that he's game, and Marcus posting confirmation that terms have been set. If Musk says yes, but things fall apart in setting terms this resolves NO. Money doesn't have to change hands, so if Musk makes a bet according to me, but later backs out, this still counts as making the bet and resolves YES.