Resolution. Resolves YES if the hourly National Living Wage rate for April 2027 that the UK government announces is £13.20 or more, and NO if it is £13.19 or less. If the age threshold changes, the rate for the oldest age band governs. If more than one rate is set for 2027-28, the rate in force on 1 April 2027 governs. The market resolves on the first rate the government announces, on gov.uk or in the Budget documents, whether before, on or after Budget day. If no rate is announced by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. The rate from April 2026 is £12.71. The Low Pay Commission's spring 2026 estimate of the rate that would keep the NLW at two-thirds of median earnings was £13.18, within a range of £13.02 to £13.34.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 October 2026, 30 minutes before the Budget speech. If the rate is announced before then, traders will know it before the close.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

The 28 October 2026 close stays fixed if the Budget moves. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.