Resolution. Resolves YES if the UK government announces, at any point on or before 28 October 2026, that the National Living Wage age threshold falls from 21 to 20 from April 2027. The announcement need not be made in the Budget. The Low Pay Commission consulted on this change in 2026 and reports to government in October.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget. The creator may trade in this market; resolution follows the published Budget documents.