Resolution. Resolves YES if the UK government announces, at any point on or before 28 October 2026, that the National Living Wage age threshold falls from 21 to 20 from April 2027. The announcement need not be made in the Budget. The Low Pay Commission consulted on this change in 2026 and reports to government in October.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 October 2026. Announcements made before then count.
The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.
The 28 October 2026 deadline stays fixed if the Budget moves. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.
Clarification, 11 October 2026. An announcement later on 28 October 2026, including in the Budget speech or documents, also counts; trading closes at 12:00 UTC only so that no one can trade on the speech. YES if, from April 2027, workers aged 20 are entitled to the same hourly rate as workers aged 21 and over, however the band is named. A separate rate for 20-year-olds below the National Living Wage resolves NO. A Low Pay Commission recommendation does not count until the government announces it will apply. The creator holds 109.3 NO shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.
1,000Clarification added to the description (11 October 2026). An announcement later on 28 October 2026, including in the Budget speech or documents, also counts; trading closes at 12:00 UTC only so that no one can trade on the speech. YES if, from April 2027, workers aged 20 are entitled to the same hourly rate as workers aged 21 and over, however the band is named. A separate rate for 20-year-olds below the National Living Wage resolves NO. A Low Pay Commission recommendation does not count until the government announces it will apply. The creator holds 109.3 NO shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.