On February 28, 2026, the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' elementary school in Minab, Hormozgan Province, Iran was destroyed during US-Israeli military strikes on Iran, killing dozens of students. Iran attributes the strike to US/Israeli forces. Some analysts have noted the school's proximity to an IRGC military base and raised the possibility that the strike was caused by a failed Iranian air defense interceptor or missile launch rather than a US/Israeli weapon.
Resolves YES if, by June 30, 2026, a credible investigation (by a recognized international body, credible OSINT organization, or major Western intelligence assessment reported by a major news outlet) concludes that the most likely cause was an Iranian missile (including air defense interceptor debris, failed launch, or friendly fire).
Resolves NO otherwise (including if no credible investigation is completed by the close date).
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https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/us/politics/iran-school-missile-strike.html
> An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.
> Officials emphasized that the findings are preliminary and that there are important unanswered questions about why the outdated information had not been double checked.
U.S. Strike Likely Hit Iranian School, Analysis Suggests, Amid Attack on Millitary Base
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/world/middleeast/iran-school-us-strikes-naval-base.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Q1A.iDYk.Q91DlPE9JfKc
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@MingweiSamuel
"Some theories have circulated online suggesting that a misfired Iranian missile was responsible for the strike on the school, but The Times and other online analysts debunked the claim, in part by determining that a single errant missile wouldn’t have caused such precise and targeted damage to several buildings across the naval base."