Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London. The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.

Background

Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London. Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range. Iran intensified efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile program following the losses it sustained during the 2025 Iran-Israel war, and is reported to have replenished its stockpile to approximately 2000 missiles. However, Iran is currently unable to produce ballistic missiles due to steps taken by Israel and the US.

Considerations

Neither missile reached its target at Diego Garcia. Accuracy and targeting intelligence remain significant challenges for Iranian long-range strikes. Iran may lack the targeting intelligence and missile accuracy to successfully strike farther targets. Additionally, Iran currently has roughly 500 to 1,000 ballistic missiles remaining.

This description was generated by AI.