Fuel duty on petrol and diesel is 52.95p a litre until 31 December 2026. Under current law it rises to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 and 57.95p on 1 March 2027, and HMRC said on 22 May 2026 that the government 'will confirm final rates at Budget 2026'. YES if the Budget sets a main petrol and diesel rate below 55.95p a litre for 1 January 2027, whether by extending the 5p cut, cancelling the rise or delaying it by any length of time. NO if 55.95p or more applies on 1 January 2027, including when the Budget says nothing about the January rate. Changes only to red diesel or other rebated rates do not count. The separate fuel duty market resolves on the 2027-28 column of the policy decisions table, so a cut that ends by 31 March 2027 can resolve this market YES and that one NO.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.