Will I start using a non-LLM AI tool on a daily basis before 2025?
Dec 31

I currently use ChatGPT pretty much daily for writing and coding. The two useful AI tool categories seem to be LLMs and image generators like Midjourney. While I have played around with image generators, I expect to use them maybe once a month, as they just aren't very relevant to my work.

If for some reason I start using image generators on a daily basis, that would also resolve YES.

I don't have a good sense of what a useful non-LLM tool could be but that is what I am curious about!

Daily doesn't mean literally every day but pretty much daily, say 25 days out of a 30 day period.

Inspired by Katja's market here: https://manifold.markets/KatjaGrace/will-there-be-any-large-language-mo?r=TWF4Rw

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It’s only AI if you don’t use it yet; after that it’s just ml

predicts YES

@Gigacasting it's only AI if it's from the Eh-aye region of France, otherwise it's just sparkling Machine Learning.

@Gigacasting "social media algorithms aren't AI, they're just ML, this totally shouldn't resolve YES already because my subjective definition of AI is right" - everyone

What do you mean by an AI tool? The camera in your phone uses ML for post-processing. Google uses ML to show you relevant search results. YouTube uses ML to decide what video to recommend to you next. Do you use any of these on a near daily basis? If so, then the market should already resolve yes, unless other stipulations are added.

@jonsimon I think the person means a "separate product". Like a website to generate pictures. If it is build as an aid tech into something he uses, it's a bit different.

But you are right, unless he has no mobile phone, this should resolve yes

@KongoLandwalker @jonsimon good Point! I agree it is quite difficult to articulate a clear boundary what counts as an AI tool. „Separate product“ is going in the right direction. I‘d appreciate input from you and others on this and I will clarify accordingly.

@MaxG something like: "A standalone product where the main value proposition comes from functionality rooted in modern AI developments. This likely means a large neural network running in an end to end fashion."