Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
27
1kṀ9222030
78%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Creating markets for @ScottAlexander's predictions here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/semaglutidonomics
(all predictions are conditional on no singularity or global catastrophe)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?
86% chance
Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people?
83% chance
Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2030?
62% chance
Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2030?
84% chance
Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
79% chance
Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2031?
85% chance
Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2040?
94% chance
Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025
7% chance
Will either Lada Nuzhan or Jose Luis Ricon give in and inject semaglutide/tirzepatide at least 3 times before EOY 2025?
43% chance
Will Matt Kaeberlein start taking semaglutide/ozempic by 2030?
41% chance