Will Metaculus or a related organization set up a regular Turing test contest before the end of 2023?
43
688
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resolved Jan 15
Resolved
NO

Recently, I [wrote a question on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11861/when-will-ai-pass-a-difficult-turing-test/) about when a difficult Turing test will first be passed by some AI. In the comments, I proposed setting up a yearly Turing test contest in order to ground the question in something concrete and resolvable. Anthony Aguirre, who co-founded Metaculus, wrote,

I'd add that I think Metaculus, or FLI, or someone should set up such a contest regularly

Gaia Dempsey, the CEO of Metaculus, replied,

I suggest we run it at Metaculus, and have a senior advisor (or two) from FLI on the project. We’ve talked about it before and it keeps coming up and feeling valuable.

This question resolves to YES if prior to January 1st 2024, Metaculus or another organization that Anthony Aguirre is officially associated with, has conducted a Turing test trial, with the intent of measuring top AI capabilities over the years. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Clarification: A "Turing test trial" does not need to be called exactly that. All that needs to be true is that Metaculus hosts a contest with the intent to measure top AI capabilities.


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📢Resolved to NO

@MatthewBarnett Can you please resolve this market? Thanks!

predicted NO

@MatthewBarnett I think this resolves No.

I initially thought you were asking if any forecasting organization is going to set up a regular Ideological Turing test contest.

Sad. I'd have liked to see the odds on that.

@hamnox you could make that market! Be the change you want to see!

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